The relationship of melatonin concentration in preterm infants and adverse outcomes in the late neonatal period

The aim of research was to assess the melatonin concentrations in the early neonatal period as a predictor of adverse outcomes of late neonatal period in preterm infants and to estimate its optimal predictive cut-off values.A total of 115 preterm infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit were screened for eligibility, five did not meet the criteria, six parents declined the participation. So, a total of 104 preterm infants with gestational age 25-34 weeks were included in research. The concentration of melatonin in urine was determined by the Enzyme Immunoassay method (Human Melatonin Sulfate ELISA kit, Elabscience, China). The Mann-Whitney U-test and analysis of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used in statistical analysis.Analysis of the ROC curves has revealed optimal cut-off values for urinary melatonin concentration to predict late outcomes. Melatonin concentration below 3.58 ng/ml with sensitivity of 72% can predict development of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) (AUC = 0.73; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.61-0.86). Good diagnostic accuracy (AUC = 0.80; 95% CI 0.67-0.93) has been shown for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). The optimal cut-off value for melatonin concentration in BPD prediction is 3.71 ng/ml (sensitivity 80%, specificity 64%). Urinary melatonin concentration below 3.79 ng/ml can be associated with late-onset sepsis (AUC = 0.76; 95% CI 0.64-0.87; sensitivity 72%; specificity 62%). There were no significant associations between melatonin concentration and necrotizing enterocolitis (P = 0.912).Urinary melatonin concentration below the certain cut-off values in the early neonatal period may serve as one of the predictors of adverse outcomes such as BPD, ROP, and late-onset sepsis in the late neonatal period in preterm infants.