Research on global natural graphite trade risk countermeasures based on the maximum entropy principle

The growing global trade disputes have raised concerns about the supply security of key minerals needed for strategic emerging industries. As one of the key minerals for many economically powerful countries, the international trade of graphite is exposed to high supply risks. Each country should not only pay attention to the paths through which trade risks propagate but also increasingly focus on how resource redistribution between countries can reduce the losses due to supply risks. Therefore, based on the construction of global graphite trade network and the principle of maximum entropy, this paper constructs a graphite trade redistribution model. Taking the trade relationship with larger export share and typical trading countries (China, the largest exporter, and Germany, a major intermediary country) as examples and from the global perspective, the resource redistribution among graphite-trading countries under different supply risk scenarios is simulated to analyze the changes in trade relations among countries. The results provide an important reference for national resource recovery after a graphite supply risk and a new way of thinking for those who study international trade. • A graphite trade redistribution model is constructed based the principle of maximum entropy. • The resource redistribution among graphite-trading countries under different supply risk scenarios is simulated. • Provide an important reference for national resource recovery after a graphite supply risk. • Provide a new way of thinking for the risk research of international trade.