Global Dietary Intake in Relation to the EAT Lancet Commission’s Scientific Targets; Results from the Global Dietary Database 2015

In 2019, the EAT-Lancet Commission proposed global dietary targets for healthy diets and sustainable food production. Actual dietary intakes worldwide, based on individual-level data, in relation to these EAT-Lancet targets are uncertain. The Global Dietary Database 2015 (GDD) collected and analyzed individual-level dietary intake data for 55 dietary factors from 1144 nationally- or sub-nationally-representative surveys. A Bayesian hierarchical model combined stratum-specific, individual-level dietary intakes with survey-specific characteristics and time-varying country-level covariates (GDP, United Nations FAO Food Balance Sheets) to estimate dietary means and uncertainty jointly stratified by country, year, age group (20 groups, birth to 95 + years), sex, urban/rural residence, and education level for 1990–2015. Dietary intakes of EAT-Lancet factors (added sugars, beans & legumes, dairy, eggs, fruits, non-starchy vegetables, nuts & seeds, red meats, seafood, starchy vegetables, and whole grains) were assessed, adjusted to 2500 kcal/day, in relation to EAT-Lancet targets. Among 7 world regions in 2015, none met EAT-Lancet targets for fruits (mean 60.6% of target, range 33.0–74.2%), non-starchy vegetables (58.1%, 44.0–71.0), beans & legumes (40.9%, 24.3–91.1), nuts & seeds, (15.0%, 5.6–21.5), or whole grains (12.8%, 5.5–29.5). All regions exceeded the maximum target for red meats (476.0%, 149.3–729.2) and added sugars (210.1%, 176.4–282.3). By population subgroups, highest educated adults globally were the closest to targets for seafood (108.5%), dairy (80.4%), and fruit (73.1%), but far exceeded targets for starchy vegetables (238.4%) and added sugars (233.4%). Conversely, rural adults were closets to the target for eggs (95.5%) but furthest from the targets for whole grains (8.0%) and nuts & seeds (13.7%). Findings by country, other foods, other population subgroups and across time will be presented in more detail. These novel findings demonstrate significant gaps and relevant heterogeneity between current global dietary patterns and proposed EAT-Lancet targets, with important implications for priorities and policies to improve human and planetary health. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.