The most appropriate cut-off point of anthropometric indices in predicting the incidence of metabolic syndrome and its components

The association of individuals’ anthropometric indices with their development of metabolic syndrome (MetS) has been investigated in several studies. Taking into account the ethnic differences, this study aimed to determine the most appropriate cut-off points of anthropometric indices in predicting the incidence of MetS and its components in Ahvaz. This study is part of a cohort study conducted at the Diabetes Research Center of Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences on a population of over 20 in Ahvaz during 2009–2014. Of the 592 patients, 505 patients who were not diagnosed with MetS in 2009, were entered into this study. The data analyzed involved demographic information including age and sex, anthropometric information including height, weight, waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC) and the ratios between them, laboratory data including blood levels of Triglyceride (TG), Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and clinical data including systolic(S) and diastolic(D)blood pressure(BP). After 5 years, the subjects were re-evaluated for MetS based on the National Cholesterol Education Program – Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) criteria and the most appropriate cut-off points of anthropometric indices for the prediction of the incidence of MetS using the Receiver Operative Characteristic (ROC) curves were obtained. Waist-to-Height Ratio (WHtR) index with a cut-off point of 0.53 followed by WC with a cut-off point of 87.5 cm had the highest power to predict the incidence of MetS. The cut-off points of WC and Body mass index (BMI) were respectively 89.5 cm and 26 kg/m2 for men, and 83.5 cm and 27.5 kg/m2 for women. All anthropometric indices were able to predict the components of this syndrome (with the exception of low HDL-C). The cut-off point of WC in predicting High FBS, High TG and High BP was 84.5, 84.8, and 86.5 cm, respectively. Overall, it seems that given its ease of measurement, the WC index is preferred to other indices for predicting the incidence of MetS and its components in clinical screening.