A tutorial on testing hypotheses using the Bayes factor.

贝叶斯因子 贝叶斯定理 统计假设检验 计算机科学 贝叶斯概率 统计 心理学 计量经济学 数学
作者
Herbert Hoijtink,Joris Mulder,Caspar J. Van Lissa,Xin Gu
出处
期刊:Psychological Methods [American Psychological Association]
卷期号:24 (5): 539-556 被引量:181
标识
DOI:10.1037/met0000201
摘要

Learning about hypothesis evaluation using the Bayes factor could enhance psychological research. In contrast to null-hypothesis significance testing it renders the evidence in favor of each of the hypotheses under consideration (it can be used to quantify support for the null-hypothesis) instead of a dichotomous reject/do-not-reject decision; it can straightforwardly be used for the evaluation of multiple hypotheses without having to bother about the proper manner to account for multiple testing; and it allows continuous reevaluation of hypotheses after additional data have been collected (Bayesian updating). This tutorial addresses researchers considering to evaluate their hypotheses by means of the Bayes factor. The focus is completely applied and each topic discussed is illustrated using Bayes factors for the evaluation of hypotheses in the context of an ANOVA model, obtained using the R package bain. Readers can execute all the analyses presented while reading this tutorial if they download bain and the R-codes used. It will be elaborated in a completely nontechnical manner: what the Bayes factor is, how it can be obtained, how Bayes factors should be interpreted, and what can be done with Bayes factors. After reading this tutorial and executing the associated code, researchers will be able to use their own data for the evaluation of hypotheses by means of the Bayes factor, not only in the context of ANOVA models, but also in the context of other statistical models. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).
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