Ecological niche modelling

One of the central research questions in ecology and biogeography revolves around understanding the spatial distribution patterns of organisms, the factors influencing species abundance, and why in certain areas there are more species or individuals than in others. Addressing these questions not only forms the bedrock of scientific research in ecology and evolution but also has critical implications for biodiversity conservation and management. To safeguard species, restore habitats, prevent invasions and anticipate future impacts, it is imperative to identify optimal areas for species or biodiversity under current and future conditions, such as changes in climate or land use. Ecologists have long tried to discern which conditions enable species to maintain viable populations in a given area (Figure 1). Broadly speaking, three main conditions must be met for a species to inhabit a site: successful dispersal throughout its biogeographic history; environmental conditions suitable for sustaining a population; and biotic conditions conducive to species persistence, including resource availability and absence of strong competitors. Ecological niche modelling, also known as species distribution modelling or habitat suitability modelling, primarily focuses on environmental factors, though models are increasingly integrating dispersal and biotic interactions. In the following sections, we will delve into the basic structure and hypotheses of ecological niche modelling, their applications and potential future improvements.