Analysis of spatial-temporal patterns and driving mechanisms of land desertification in China

Desertification is a major manifestation of land degradation in China. The monitoring and assessment of land desertification in China and the analysis of its driving mechanisms are crucial to the realization of the aspiration of "net zero land degradation" proposed by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). An improved Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model was applied to assess the multiyear spatial distribution of land desertification sensitivity across China in 2010, 2015, and 2020. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to evaluate the internal stability of the model. In addition, a Geographical Detector method was used to examine the driving mechanisms of desertification sensitivity in China. The results showed that extremely sensitive desertification areas were primarily concentrated within the Northwest Desert and Desertification Region, northern segment of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau desert and desertification region, and western sector of the Inner Mongolia-Daxinganling Desert and Desertification Region. In addition, the proportion of land area showing an overall reduction in sensitivity (17.07 %) exceeded that showing an increase (16.56 %). This indicates an overall diminishing trend in sensitivity to land desertification across China. Land use intensity (LUI), drought resistance (DR), erosion protection (EP), and aridity index (AI) are consistently the most important drivers. From 2015 to 2020, the LUI emerged as the principal catalyst behind the transformation of land desertification sensitivity in China. Hence, emphasizing well-planned land use is vital for ensuring harmony between land utilization and ecological capacity. This study establishes a scientific basis for China's land desertification control strategy and serves as a quantitative analysis reference for the driving mechanisms.