The increase in extreme precipitation and its proportion over global land

降水 仰角(弹道) 环境科学 气候学 全球变暖 气候变化 干旱 自然地理学 北半球 空间分布 句号(音乐) 地理 地质学 生态学 气象学 海洋学 生物 物理 遥感 数学 声学 几何学
作者
Shuai Li,Yaning Chen,Wei Wei,Gonghuan Fang,Weili Duan
出处
期刊:Journal of Hydrology [Elsevier BV]
卷期号:628: 130456-130456 被引量:38
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130456
摘要

Changes in extreme precipitation (EP) have a significant impact on the ecology and sustainable development of most regions, especially when considered against a backdrop of global warming. Using trend analysis and other methods, we analyze the changes in nine extreme precipitation indices (EPIs), looking at the proportion of EP in total precipitation from the perspectives of intensity, frequency, and duration. We also utilize a geo-detector method to investigate the impacts of 15 climate factors on EPIs. Our results indicate that although EP and their proportions show an overall increasing trend on a global scale, they had undergone a process of initial decrease followed by increase over the past approximately 70 years. And this overall global increases are charged by the significant increases happened in Northern Hemisphere and western of South America, especially EP intensity and frequency indices, and their proportion. Whereas CDD shows an opposite trend in spatial distribution, the CWD is decreasing globally. The EPIs and their proportions are all highest in the low elevation belt (≤2000 m), followed by the high elevation belt (≥4000 m), and lowest in the mid-elevation belts (2000-4000 m). Most of them have returned to or exceeded the levels of the mid-20th century in all three elevation belts. Only CWD shows a decreasing trend, which indicates that more EP amounts are occurring with less precipitation duration. In some arid areas, this makes it possible that a short period of precipitation may complete the total amount of precipitation for that year. Global temperature is proven to be the most important factor influencing the EPI globally, and followed by the temperature of each region. And the regions of high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and Antarctica which are greatly influenced by global temperature demonstrate the Polar amplification effect. The East Atlantic-West Russia Pattern, Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation indices are the secondly important factors leading to changes in the proportion of global EP. At the same time, we also find that the influence of non-monsoon factors on EP is gradually strengthening. This study clarifies changes in EP globally and in various regions, which will help provide a scientific reference for preventing disasters caused by extreme climate change.
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