Social-economic transitions and vulnerability to extreme temperature events from 1960 to 2020 in Chinese cities

Climate change leads to more frequent and intense extreme temperature events, causing a significant number of excess deaths. Using an epidemiological approach, we analyze all-cause deaths related to heatwaves and cold spells in 2,852 Chinese counties from 1960 to 2020. Economic losses associated with these events are determined through the value of statistical life. Findings reveal that cold-related cumulative excess deaths (1,133 thousand) are approximately 2.5 times higher than heat-related deaths, despite an increase in heat-related fatalities in recent decades. Monetized mortality due to heat-related events is estimated at 1,284 billion CNY, while cold-related economic loss is 1,510 billion CNY. Notably, cities located in colder regions experience more heat-related excess deaths, and vice versa. Economic development does not significantly reduce mortality risks to heatwaves across China. This study provides insights into the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of heatwaves and cold spells mortality, essential for policymakers ensuring long-term climate adaptation and sustainability.