Simulating the effects of low-temperature stress on wheat biomass growth and yield

Low-temperature stress in late spring poses a serious threat to winter wheat production. In three-year environment-controlled phytotron experiments at both elongation and booting stages, we observed that short-term low-temperature stress decreased leaf area and stem, limited leaf photosynthetic system, and severely reduced grain yield, especially in the low-temperature sensitive cultivar. To better quantify the effects of low-temperature stress on leaf photosynthesis rate (Pn), leaf area index (LAI), biomass partitioning, and grain yield, the lethal temperature at 50% mortality (LT50), low-temperature damage index (LDI), and process-based algorithms were proposed and incorporated into the WheatGrow model. The algorithms take into account the effects of low-temperature with different durations and reflected a low-temperature sensitivity of cultivars at different growth periods by using LT50. The improved WheatGrow model could reproduce well the observed dynamics of the decrease of Pn during the treatment period, recovery of Pn after cold treatments, and the damage to LAI and biomass accumulation under the low-temperature stress treatments. Compared to the original model, RMSE of Pn, LAI, total aboveground biomass, and grain yield in the improved WheatGrow model were reduced by 63 to 77% under low-temperature stress. Although the newly developed algorithms expand crop modeling capacity into quantifying the impacts of low-temperature stress on wheat productivity, further assessments with observed data under field conditions are still required, especially for obtaining suitable parameters at the regional scale.