Cardiovascular risk factors and aortic valve stenosis: towards 10-year absolute risk charts for primary prevention

Abstract Aim Due to aging populations the incidence of aortic valve stenosis (AVS) is increasing steeply. Since no medical therapy is available but only surgical interventions, it is highly warranted to identify modifiable risk factors for early prevention. The aim of the study was to investigate the associations of cardiovascular risk factors with AVS and to create 10-year absolute risk scores for use in primary prevention. Methods In the Copenhagen General Population Study (N=93,979) lifestyle data, biochemical measures, and confounders were assessed at baseline. Risk factors with the strongest association with aortic valve stenosis from Cox regression analyses were included in ten-year risk prediction models. Ten-year absolute risk scores were conducted using the method of Fine-Gray proportional sub-hazards models, accounting for competing events. Results 1,132 individuals developed AVS during follow-up. Of well-known cardiovascular risk factors, those that associated with AVS included increasing levels of remnant cholesterol, triglycerides, lipoprotein(a), systolic blood pressure, and body mass index, low adherence to Danish dietary guidelines, current smoking, high alcohol consumption, lipid-lowering therapy and diabetes mellitus. Ten-year absolute risk scores increased when compiling the most important risk factors for AVS; age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, lipoprotein(a), and diabetes. Ten-year absolute risk increased from <1% to 19%. Conclusions The presence of cardiovascular risk factors is associated with AVS, supporting that this disease, at least partly, may be modifiable through lifestyle changes. Risk charts combining cardiovascular risk factors have the potential to identify high-risk individuals, offering opportunities for preventive strategies. (Word count 245)