Factor analysis of metabolic syndrome components and predicting type 2 diabetes: Results of 10‐year follow‐up in a Middle Eastern population

The relationship among components of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and their association with diabetes is unclear in West Asia. The aim of the present study was to conduct factor analysis of MetS components and the effect these factors have on the incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in a population-based cohort study of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS).The present study enrolled 1861 men and 2706 women (20-60 years of age), from Tehran (Iran) who were free of diabetes at baseline and followed them for 10 years. A principal component analysis was performed to extract standardized factors from MetS components. Logistic regression was used to detect associations between the extracted factors and the incidence of diabetes. A propensity score was used to correct differential selection bias resulting from loss to follow-up.Factor analysis identified three factors (blood pressure, lipids and glycemia). Waist circumference was shared in three all factors. Blood pressure, lipids and glycemia were related to the incidence of diabetes with odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 2.23 (1.31-3.78), 1.89 (1.27-3.67), and 7.54 (4.09-13.91), respectively, in men and 2.13 (1.34-3.40), 2.06 (1.35-3.15), and 13.91 (7.29-26.51), respectively, in women for the third versus the first tertile of these standardized factors.Central adiposity may have a pivotal role in MetS linking other risk factors together. Glycemia had a high impact on the incidence of diabetes, whereas blood pressure and lipid had a similar moderate effect on the incidence of diabetes.