Equilibrating provincial carbon increments for residential buildings in China under carbon peaking constraints

The speedy raise of residential buildings' carbon emissions is a hindrance to achieving China's 2030 carbon peak goal. This study constructs an assessment framework for comprehensive consideration of 30 Chinese provinces' socioeconomic circumstances, energy demand, and emissions reduction technology to meet the consistent coupling degree of equity and efficiency (CDEE). This study is the first to propose an allocation scheme for equilibrating provincial carbon increments for rural and urban residential buildings in 2030 under carbon peaking constraints. The relevant results are fourfold. (1) Residential building's floor area per capita and energy carbon emissions coefficients are the soliddest drivers to facilitate and inhibit the raise of carbon emissions during 2010–2020. (2) Through dynamic Monte Carlo simulation from 2021 to 2030, we demonstrate that provinces with the most gamey carbon emissions in urban and rural areas include Shandong, at 121.52 (± 5.50) Mt. and Hebei, at 61.34 (± 3.08) Mt. in 2030, respectively. (3) A CDEE of 52.3% (biased equity) in urban areas and 34.5% (biased efficiency) in rural areas indicates equilibrated allocation of provincial carbon increment. (4) In the final 2030 allocation scheme, the greatest carbon mitigation pressures are in Beijing (11.34 Mt) and Heilongjiang (3.23 Mt), and the provinces with the largest carbon increment in urban areas include Hebei, Henan, and Guangdong, while the largest carbon increments in rural areas are in Hebei, Henan, and Guangdong. Overall, this study furnishes a targeted and valuable decision making reference for the government to determine provincial carbon peak goals for Chinese residential buildings.