PM2.5 constituents associated with childhood obesity and larger BMI growth trajectory: a 14-year longitudinal study

The association of specific PM2.5 chemical constituents with childhood overweight or obesity (OWOB) remain unclear. Furthermore, the long-term impacts of PM2.5 exposure on the trajectory of children's body mass index (BMI) have not been explored. We conducted a longitudinal study among 1,450,830 Chinese children aged 6-19 years from Beijing and Zhongshan in China during 2005-2018 to examine the associations of PM2.5 and its chemical constituents with incident OWOB risk. We extracted PM2.5 mass and five main component exposure from Tracking Air Pollution in China (TAP) dataset. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to quantify exposure-response associations. We further performed principal component analysis (PCA) to handle the multi-collinearity and used quantile g-computation (QGC) approach to analyze the impacts of exposure mixtures. Additionally, we selected 125,863 children with at least 8 physical examination measurements and combined group-based trajectory models (GBTM) with multinomial logistic regression models to explore the impacts of exposure to PM2.5 mass and five constituents on BMI and BMI Z-score trajectories during 6-19 years. We observed each interquartile range increment in PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with a 5.1% increase in the risk of incident OWOB (95% confidence Interval [CI]: 1.036-1.066). We also found black carbon, sulfate, organic matter, often linked to fossil combustion, had comparable or larger estimates of the effect (HR = 1.139-1.153) than PM2.5. Furthermore, Exposure to PM2.5 mass, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic matter and black carbon was significantly associated with an increased odds of being in a larger BMI trajectory and being assigned to persistent OWOB trajectory. Our findings provide evidence that the constituents mainly from fossil fuel combustion may have a perceptible influence on increased OWOB risk associated with PM2.5 exposure in China. Moreover, long-term exposure to PM2.5 contributes to an increased odds of being in a lager BMI and a persistent OWOB trajectories.