Small pretreatment lesion size and high sphericity as favorable prognostic factors after laser interstitial thermal therapy in brain metastases

OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to identify baseline clinical and radiological characteristics of brain metastases (BMs) associated with a higher probability of lesion-specific progression-free survival (PFS-L) after laser interstitial thermal therapy (LITT). METHODS A total of 47 lesions in 42 patients with BMs treated with LITT were retrospectively examined, including newly diagnosed BM, suspected recurrent BM, and suspected radiation necrosis. The association of baseline clinical and radiological features with PFS-L was assessed using survival analyses. Radiological features included lesion size measurements, diffusion and perfusion metrics, and sphericity, which is a radiomic feature ranging from 1 (perfect sphere) to 0. RESULTS The probability of PFS-L for the entire cohort was 88.0% at 3 months, 70.6% at 6 months, 67.4% at 1 and 2 years, and 62.2% at 3 years. For lesions progressing after LITT (n = 13), the median time to progression was 3.9 months, and most lesions (n = 11) progressed within 6 months after LITT. In lesions showing response to LITT (n = 17), the median time to response was 12.1 months. All 3 newly diagnosed BMs showed a long-term response. The mean (± SD) follow-up duration for all censored lesions (n = 34) was 20.7 ± 19.4 months (range 12 days to 6.1 years). The mean pretreatment enhancing volume was 2.68 cm 3 and the mean sphericity was 0.70. Pretreatment small enhancing volume (p = 0.003) and high sphericity (p = 0.024) computed from lesion segmentation predicted a longer PFS-L after LITT. Lesions meeting optimal cutoffs of either enhancing volume < 2.5 cm 3 (adjusted p = 0.004) or sphericity ≥ 0.705 (adjusted p = 0.019) had longer PFS-L, and their probability of PFS-L was 86.8% at 3 years. Lesions meeting both cutoffs showed a cumulative benefit (p < 0.0001), with a 100% probability of PFS-L at 3 years, which was unchanged at the end of follow-up (4.1 years). Manually computed estimates of lesion size (maximal axial diameter, p = 0.011) and sphericity (p = 0.043) were also predictors of PFS-L. Optimal cutoffs of diameter < 2 cm (adjusted p = 0.035) or manual sphericity ≥ 0.91 (adjusted p = 0.092) identified lesions with longer PFS-L, and lesions meeting both cutoffs showed a cumulative benefit (p = 0.0023). Baseline diffusion imaging did not predict PFS-L. A subset of lesions (n = 7) with highly perfused hotspots had worse PFS-L (adjusted p = 0.010), but perfusion signal contamination from vessels and cortex and underlying size differences were possible confounders. CONCLUSIONS Small size and high sphericity are ideal baseline features for lesions considered for LITT treatment, with a cumulative PFS-L benefit when both features are present, that could aid patient selection.