Global burden of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2021

Abstract Aims To devise effective preventive measures, a profound understanding of the evolving patterns and trends in atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) burdens is pivotal. Our study was designed to quantify the burden and delineate the risk factors associated with AF and AFL across 204 countries and territories spanning 1990–2021. Methods and results Data pertaining to AF and AFL were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The burden of AF/AFL was evaluated using metrics such as incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), deaths, and their corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs), stratified by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and human development index (HDI). The estimated annual percentage change was employed to quantify changes in ASRs. Population attributable fractions were calculated to determine the proportional contributions of major risk factors to age-standardized AF/AFL deaths. This analysis encompassed the period from 1990 to 2021. Globally, in 2021, there were 4.48 million incident cases [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3.61–5.70], 8.36 million DALYs (95% UI: 6.97–10.13) and 0.34 million deaths (95% UI: 0.29–0.37) attributed to AF/AFL. The AF/AFL burden in 2021, as well as its trends from 1990 to 2021, displayed substantial variations based on gender, SDI quintiles, and geographical regions. High systolic blood pressure emerged as the leading contributor to age-standardized AF/AFL incidence, prevalence, death, and DALY rate globally among all potential risk factors, followed closely by high body mass index. Conclusion Our study underscores the enduring significance of AF/AFL as a prominent public health concern worldwide, marked by profound regional and national variations. Despite the substantial potential for prevention and management of AF/AFL, there is a pressing imperative to adopt more cost-effective strategies and interventions to target modifiable risk factors, particularly in areas where the burden of AF/AFL is high or escalating.