Development and validation of a model predicting adrenal lipid-poor adenoma based on the minimum attenuation value from non-contrast CT: a dual-center retrospective study

The early differentiation of adrenal lipid-poor adenomas from non-adenomas is a crucial step in reducing excessive examinations and treatments. This study seeks to construct an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) predictive model utilizing the minimum attenuation values (minAVs) from non-contrast CT (NCCT) scans to identify lipid-poor adenomas. Retrospective analysis encompassed clinical data, minAVs, CT histogram (CTh), mean attenuation values (meanAVs), and lesion diameter from patients with pathologically or clinically confirmed adrenal lipid-poor adenomas across two medical institutions, juxtaposed with non-adenomas. Variable selection transpired in Institution A (training set), with XGBoost models established based on minAVs and CTh separately. Institution B (validation set) corroborated the diagnostic efficacy of the two models. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, calibration curves, and Brier scores assessed the diagnostic performance and calibration of the models, with the Delong test gauging differences in the area under the curve (AUC) between models. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values elucidated and visualized the models. The training set comprised 136 adrenal lipid-poor adenomas and 126 non-adenomas, while the validation set included 46 and 40 instances, respectively. In the training set, there were substantial inter-group differences in minAVs, CTh, meanAVs, diameter, and body mass index (BMI) (p < 0.05 for all). The AUC for the minAV and CTh models were 0.912 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.866–0.957) and 0.916 (95% CI: 0.873–0.958), respectively. Both models exhibited good calibration, with Brier scores of 0.141 and 0.136. In the validation set, the AUCs were 0.871 (95% CI: 0.792–0.951) and 0.878 (95% CI: 0.794–0.962), with Brier scores of 0.156 and 0.165, respectively. The Delong test revealed no statistically significant differences in AUC between the models (p > 0.05 for both). SHAP value analysis for the minAV model suggested that minAVs had the highest absolute weight (AW) and negative contribution. The XGBoost predictive model based on minAVs demonstrates effective discrimination between adrenal lipid-poor adenomas and non-adenomas. The minAV variable is easily obtainable, and its diagnostic performance is comparable to that of the CTh model. This provides a basis for patient diagnosis and treatment plan selection.