A model to forecast chatter in surface grinding is proposed considering the stiffness variation along the longitudinal direction, which is suitable for beams with different kinds of constraints. Utilizing the method for stability analysis of control systems, the stability condition of the grinding system is obtained. According to the results from the model, the probability of chatter increases with the distance from the constraint under the same grinding condition. The stability limit curve (lobe diagram) at any position in the longitudinal direction could be acquired from the model, which can provide evidence for chatter avoidance. The stability diagram expresses a parameter space between the speed of the spindle and the nominal grinding depth, where the grinding process is stable using the parameters below the stability curve but unstable using the parameters above the stability curve. In this paper, grinding of a simply supported rail beam is taken as an example. The chatter forecast is verified via rail beam grinding.