Sink or Swim? A survival analysis of sport dropout in Australian youth swimmers

Objectives To examine long‐term participation and dropout rates in Australian youth swimming using survival analyses and to determine whether multiple individual, socio‐demographic, and competition‐related factors influenced dropout. Design Retrospective cohort study of registration and competitive performance data. Methods Part 1— Registration data from N = 17 161 female (n = 9400) and male (n = 7761) New South Wales (NSW) swimmers aged 10‐15 years (inclusive). Part 2— Competition level involvement in a subsample of female (n = 1011) and male (n = 811) swimmers, aged 12‐15 years, was also examined. To determine dropout rates and influential factors, Kaplan‐Meier survival analyses supplemented by Cox regression were used. Results (1) Kaplan‐Meier analyses identified median sustained participation rates of four years (95% CI = 3.93‐4.06), with 15.9% maintaining participation over 10 years. Cox regressions identified age‐group was associated with dropout ( P < .001), with a 184.9% higher Hazard Rate (HR) for 10‐ vs 15‐year‐olds. Residential proximity to major cities was associated with dropout ( P < .001), with urban swimmers reporting a 24.8% higher HR rate than rural swimmers. Sex and relative age were not associated with dropout. (2) The subsample median sustained participation was five years (95% CI = 4.79‐5.20), with 25.3% maintaining participation for ten years. Level of competition was associated ( P < .001), with an 86% higher HR when considering lower competition levels (ie, club/district v national). Conclusion In a large representative sample of swimmers, survival analyses identified age‐group, competition level, and city proximity were associated with increased swimming dropout rates.