CO2 emissions change in Tianjin: The driving factors and the role of CCS

The environmental damage caused by the greenhouse effect is intensified by the continuous rise of carbon dioxide emissions. As a major industrial base in northern China, Tianjin has been emitting more carbon and thus faces a greater challenge to reduce its emissions. To meet the dual carbon goals of Tianjin, it is critical to identify influencing factors of carbon emissions and to find suitable technologies to effectively reduce emissions. In this study, the energy consumption data of Tianjin from 2005 to 2020 were analyzed via the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI). The carbon emission driving factors were decomposed and the contributions of four primary factors, including energy structure, energy intensity, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and population to CO2 emissions of this region, were evaluated. The ideal characteristics of the oil reservoirs with low permeability and the suitable carbon dioxide sinks make carbon capture and storage(CCS) technology implementation feasible in Tianjin. Despite this, the effect of CCS technology on CO2 emissions in the future is still uncertain. Thus, the Bass model was firstly introduced to assess the future development trend of CCS technology and its capacity of CO2 emission reduction. The results revealed that energy intensity was the primary contribution to reducing carbon emissions, while GDP per capita was the main contributor to the overall increase of CO2 emissions in 2005–2020. The CCS technology diffusion process is fast, with rapid growth starting in 2030 and reaching growth saturation in 2040. According to the scenario analysis, CCS could make a substantial contribution of 2674.78× 104 tons per year after 2040 to the carbon emission reduction of Tianjin. Therefore, the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction policies as well as the expansion of CCS projects are essential to ensure that Tianjin achieves its carbon neutrality goal by 2060. This study offers helpful guidance for other cities to forecast their carbon emission reduction trajectories and establish emission reduction strategies.