Short-term fluctuations of ecosystem services beneath long-term trends

Ecosystem services (ESs) play a crucial role in ecosystem management and landscape planning. While previous studies have started to focus on the long-term trends of ESs, there is still limited knowledge about the short-term fluctuations of different ESs and their implications for ecosystem management. In this study, we examined the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau as an example to investigate the long-term trends and short-term fluctuations of five key ESs. The findings reveal that beneath the surface of seemingly stable long-term trends, the short-term fluctuations of ESs become intricate and complex. Short-term fluctuations of different ESs vary significantly. From 2000 to 2021, the Average Interannual Fluctuation Index for Carbon Sequestration (CS), Water Conservation (WC), Soil Retention (SR), Wind Erosion Prevention (WEP), and Habitat Quality (HQ) is 3.90 %, 13.45 %, 10.90 %, 10.16 %, and 3.95 %, respectively. Such insights are critical for decision-makers to avoid misjudging changes in ESs and to develop efficient strategies for adaptive management.