Using Land Use and Transportation Interaction (LUTI) models to determine land use effects from new vehicle transportation technologies; a regional scale of analysis

Advances in automotive engineering have brought about a range of new vehicle technologies, such as automation, connectivity and electrification, which are expected to have multiple effects on different aspects of people's lives and have the potential of radically transforming the transportation status quo. This paper explores the effects that such new technologies can have on land use by employing a Land Use and Transportation Interaction (LUTI) modelling approach. A new methodology is developed to simulate the effects of automation, connectivity and electrification on accessibility and to conduct a sensitivity analysis. The analysis is carried out on a regional scale to determine the effects of the new technologies on multiple cities that form a region. The case study for this application is the region of the West Midlands (UK). The results suggest that new vehicle technologies can affect accessibility, population and employment in the cities of the region, the region itself, as well as the peripheral zones beyond the boundary of the region in a 15-year modelling period. Most notably, the two main urban cores of the region are found to not lose their financial power, despite increases in employment opportunities and population density in more rural outskirts. The increased accessibility also results in the relocation of lower-income households to places with lower housing rent. The sensitivity analysis shows that these findings are mostly impacted by changes in road capacity (which is expected to be generally higher as a result of these new technologies), as well as different penetration levels in the fleet.