Thyroid Nodule Size at Ultrasound as a Predictor of Malignancy and Final Pathologic Size

Background: Thyroid-related mortality has remained constant despite the increasing incidence of thyroid carcinoma. Most thyroid nodules are benign; therefore, ultrasound and fine needle aspiration (FNA) are integral in cancer screening. We hypothesize that increased nodule size at ultrasound does not predict malignancy and correlation between nodule size at ultrasound and pathologic exam is good. Methods: Resected thyroids with preoperative ultrasounds were identified. Nodule size at ultrasound, FNA diagnosis by Bethesda category, size at pathologic examination, and final histologic diagnosis were recorded. Nodule characteristics at ultrasound and FNA diagnoses were correlated with gross characteristics and histologic diagnoses. Nodules for which correlation could not be established were excluded. Results: Of 1003 nodules from 659 patients, 26% were malignant. Nodules <2 cm had the highest malignancy rate (∼30%). Risk was similar (∼20%) for nodules ≥2 cm. Of the 548 subject to FNA, 38% were malignant. Dec...