Future Arrival Management Collaborating with Trajectory-Based Operations

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has created a long-term plan for a harmonized global future air traffic management (ATM) system to be achieved by the year 2030. A key element of this plan is four-dimensional trajectory-based operations (4D TBO), where aircraft fly along optimal trajectories defined in space and time and agreed to between the aircraft and air traffic controllers and operators. One issue is how to minimize the uncertainty of predicted arrival time, which increases in proportion to flight distance from the destination airport. To clarify and help resolve this issue, this study investigates design principles and algorithms for a novel ground advisory system which smoothes arrival air traffic by providing coverage for both en route and terminal airspaces. Defined as "Extended Arrival MANager (E-AMAN)," operational concepts to be used to collaborate with 4D TBO are proposed in this paper. Information sharing, air-ground harmonization, and the design of human-system interactions are discussed as three main technologies for supporting efficient arrival operations in the future. Furthermore, future arrival scheduling should not only follow the current first-come first-served (FCFS) protocol but should also consider performance-based operations (PBO) targeting the mixed equipage situation in a future ATM environment. This paper presents a future vision of 4D TBO-based arrival management and clarifies policies for developing technologies to support the ATM system of 2030.