A new type-2 fuzzy multi-criteria hybrid method for rail transit operation safety assessment

Rail transit plays a very important role in the social and economic development of big cities. Its operational safety is of great significance for ensuring people's lives and maintaining social stability. In this paper, the rail transit operation safety management framework is proposed and analyzed by considering the factors of organizational management, personnel management, equipment and facilities and operating environment together. Considering the fuzzy uncertainty in the process of the safety assessment of rail transit operation (SARTO) and the interrelationship and conflict among the criteria, a new hybrid model combining DEMATEL, ANP and VIKOR with type-2 fuzzy linguistic variables is proposed. The model can present the effect-cause relationship among the different main criteria by the type-2 fuzzy DEMATEL, obtain the weights of the sub-criteria by the type-2 fuzzy ANP and the risk assessment value of each metro line by the type-2 fuzzy VIKOR and give further suggestions for rail transit operation safety management. This novel hybrid methodology is used to evaluate operation safety of metro lines in Beijing, and the sensitivity analysis is also applied to analyze the robustness. For the accuracy and consistency with the actual situation check, the proposed type-2 fuzzy VIKOR method is compared with both TOPSIS method and MOORA method in interval type-2 fuzzy sets. The application of Beijing metro lines proves the feasibility and the practicality of the new hybrid method, which provides effective support for decision-makers in practice.