Machine learning algorithms to estimate 10-Year survival in patients with bone metastases due to prostate cancer: toward a disease-specific survival estimation tool

医学 前列腺癌 布里氏评分 肿瘤科 外科肿瘤学 生存分析 内科学 疾病 阶段(地层学) 癌症 接收机工作特性 骨转移 机器学习 计算机科学 生物 古生物学
作者
Ashley B. Anderson,Clare Grazal,Rikard Wedin,Huai‐Ching Kuo,Yongmei Chen,Bryce Christensen,Jennifer Cullen,Jonathan A. Forsberg
出处
期刊:BMC Cancer [BioMed Central]
卷期号:22 (1) 被引量:8
标识
DOI:10.1186/s12885-022-09491-7
摘要

Prognostic indicators, treatments, and survival estimates vary by cancer type. Therefore, disease-specific models are needed to estimate patient survival. Our primary aim was to develop models to estimate survival duration after treatment for skeletal-related events (SREs) (symptomatic bone metastasis, including impending or actual pathologic fractures) in men with metastatic bone disease due to prostate cancer. Such disease-specific models could be added to the PATHFx clinical-decision support tool, which is available worldwide, free of charge. Our secondary aim was to determine disease-specific factors that should be included in an international cancer registry.We analyzed records of 438 men with metastatic prostate cancer who sustained SREs that required treatment with radiotherapy or surgery from 1989-2017. We developed and validated 6 models for 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, and 10-year survival after treatment. Model performance was evaluated using calibration analysis, Brier scores, area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis to determine the models' clinical utility. We characterized the magnitude and direction of model features.The models exhibited acceptable calibration, accuracy (Brier scores < 0.20), and classification ability (AUCs > 0.73). Decision curve analysis determined that all 6 models were suitable for clinical use. The order of feature importance was distinct for each model. In all models, 3 factors were positively associated with survival duration: younger age at metastasis diagnosis, proximal prostate-specific antigen (PSA) < 10 ng/mL, and slow-rising alkaline phosphatase velocity (APV).We developed models that estimate survival duration in patients with metastatic bone disease due to prostate cancer. These models require external validation but should meanwhile be included in the PATHFx tool. PSA and APV data should be recorded in an international cancer registry.
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