Optimizing sowing window and cultivar choice can boost China’s maize yield under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Abstract Climate change, with increased temperatures and varied rainfall, poses a great challenge to food security around the world. Appropriately assessing the impacts of climate change on crop productivity and understanding the adaptation potential of agriculture to climate change are urgently needed to help develop effective strategies for future agriculture and to maintain food security. In this study, we studied future maize yield changes under 1.5 °C (2018–2037) and 2 °C (2044–2063) warming scenarios and investigated the adaptation potential across China’s Maize Belt by optimizing the sowing date and cultivar using the APSIM-Maize model. In comparison to the baseline scenario, under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios, we found that without adaptation, maize yields would increase in the relatively cool regions with a single-cropping system but decrease in other regions. However, in comparison with the baseline scenario, under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios with adaptation, maize yields would increase by 11.1%–53.9% across the study area. Across the maize belt, compared with the baseline scenario, under warming of 1.5 °C, the potential sowing window would increase by 2–17 d, and under warming of 2 °C, this sowing window would increase by 4–26 d. The optimal sowing window would also be significantly extended in the regions with single-cropping systems by an average of 10 d under the 1.5 °C warming scenario and 12 d under the 2 °C warming scenario. Late-maturing cultivar achieved higher yield than early-middle maturing cultivars in all regions except the north part of Northeast China. Adjusting the sowing date by increasing growth-period precipitation contributed more (44.5%–96.7%) to yield improvements than shifting cultivars (0%–50.8%) and climate change (−53.1% to 23.0%) across all maize planting regions except in the wet southwestern parts of the maize belt. The differences among the maize planting regions in terms of high adaptation potential provide invaluable information for policymakers and stakeholders of maize production to set out optimized agricultural strategies to safeguard the supply of maize.