Pathways for electric power industry to achieve carbon emissions peak and carbon neutrality based on LEAP model: A case study of state-owned power generation enterprise in China

Global climate change is a growing concern for the international community. China has played an active and constructive role in the global combat against climate change. Given the dominating role of coal in China’s power supply mix, it is especially urgent to find pathways for the electric power industry to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Using the case of a state-owned power generation enterprise, this paper explores pathways for the Enterprise to reach carbon emissions peak and carbon neutrality in five scenarios based on the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. The modeling process takes into consideration of technologies’ learning curve of generation technologies, carbon capture rate, and environmental cost (carbon price) for fossil fuel generators. The LEAP model simulates the structure of the electric power supply, CO2 emissions from power generation, total costs (including capital cost, O&M cost, fuel cost and carbon price), and carbon capture costs. The results show that carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is crucial to achieving CO2 reduction while maintaining a certain amount of thermal power installed capacity to ensure grid system inertia and security. Biomass power coupled with CCUS is an important carbon negative technology for achieving carbon neutrality. Based on simulations and scenario analysis, this paper proposes policy recommendations for the electric power industry to realize carbon emissions peaking and carbon neutrality.