Organic carbon stocks, quality and prediction in permafrost-affected forest soils in North Canada

High-latitude soils store a large amount of the global soil organic carbon (SOC). The SOC stocks in mineral soils under different permafrost conditions, however, are underrepresented in global carbon databases. We sampled mineral forest soils under continuous and discontinuous to sporadic permafrost conditions on the Canadian Boreal and Taiga Plain. We determined the SOC stocks in the upper 60 cm of 94 soil pits across eleven sites (5–9 pits per site) and SOC quality using 13C isotopic signatures, C:N ratios and composition of aliphatic/aromatic and cellulose/lignin-like compounds obtained from mid-infrared spectra analyses. Lastly, we evaluated the prediction of SOC stocks in these soils using mid-infrared spectra and partial least square regression modelling (PLSR). The SOC stocks were on average four times higher in soils under continuous permafrost conditions (93.7–203.8 Mg SOC ha−1 in 0–45 cm) compared to soils under discontinuous to sporadic permafrost conditions (26.7–60.2 Mg SOC ha−1 in 0–60 cm). In addition, the SOC stocks were larger at moist and wet locations compared to dryer locations and varied significantly between sites, stressing the importance of small-scale geomorphic differences in controlling SOC in boreal mineral forest soils. Continuous permafrost SOC had a lower degree of decomposition compared to soils under discontinuous and sporadic permafrost. This indicates a potentially large proportion of SOC in boreal mineral soils to be vulnerable to warming associate increases in decomposition. The combination of mid-infrared with PLSR was suitable to predict the SOC stocks (R2 > 0.8) with an average uncertainty of 14–23%, which was less than the observed spatial variability of the field replicates (29–41%). Mid-infrared spectroscopy can thus offer an alternative to fill SOC data gaps of high latitude mineral forest soils and reduce uncertainties originating from the limited number of currently available SOC observations of Canadian boreal mineral forest soils.