The decoupling relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth in the Chinese mining industry under the context of carbon neutrality

Mining industry emission reduction is an important way to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality target in China. Decoupling economic development from CO2 emissions is the main strategy to reduce emissions from the mining industry. However, no studies have investigated the decoupling state and drivers of the Chinese mining industry. This paper is based on panel data of the mining industry and its subsectors during 2002–2016. The Tapio decoupling model was constructed to analyze the decoupling state of economic development and CO2 emissions. The LMDI model was developed to decompose the drivers of the decoupling state. The results show that: (1) The CO2 emission intensity of the mining industry decreased significantly from 1.63 tons per 10,000 yuan in 2002 to about 0.27 tons per 10,000 yuan in 2016. (2) The Chinese mining industry shows an inverted U-shaped decoupling relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth. Specifically, the change trend of decoupling state of Mining and Washing of Coal (MWC) also presents an inverted U-shape. Mining and Processing of Nonmetal Ores (MPNO) performs the best during the study period. Extraction of Petroleum and Natural Gas (EPNG) shows the largest change in decoupling state and the worst performance. (3) Overall, the economic output effect (CG) is the most important factor that promotes CO2 emissions and inhibits decoupling. The energy intensity effect (EI) is the main contributor to suppressing CO2 emissions and promoting decoupling. The energy structure effect (ES) is the most promising influencing factor. (4) There is variability in the role played by different 21 factors in the five subsectors. Specifically, EI inhibits decoupling in MWC but promotes decoupling in EPNG、Mining and Processing of Ferrous Metal Ores (MPFMO) and MPNO. ES inhibits decoupling in MWC and MPFMO but promotes decoupling in MPNFMO, while it has little effect on decoupling in EPNG and MPNO. Based on the results, comprehensive policy recommendations are made to achieve decoupling economic growth from CO2 emissions in the Chinese mining industry.