Quantitative and Morphology-Based Deep Convolutional Neural Network Approaches for Osteosarcoma Survival Prediction in the Neoadjuvant and Metastatic Setting.

Abstract Purpose: Necrosis quantification in the neoadjuvant setting using pathology slide review is the most important validated prognostic marker in conventional osteosarcoma. Herein, we explored three deep learning strategies on histology samples to predict outcome for OSA in the neoadjuvant setting. Experimental Design: Our study relies on a training cohort from New York University (New York, NY) and an external cohort from Charles university (Prague, Czechia). We trained and validated the performance of a supervised approach that integrates neural network predictions of necrosis/tumor content, and compared predicted overall survival (OS) using Kaplan-Meier curves. Furthermore, we explored morphology-based supervised and self-supervised approaches to determine whether intrinsic histomorphological features could serve as a potential marker for OS in the setting of neoadjuvant. Results: Excellent correlation between the trained network and the pathologists was obtained for the quantification of necrosis content (R2=0.899, r=0.949, p < 0.0001). OS prediction cutoffs were consistent between pathologists and the neural network (22% and 30% of necrosis, respectively). Morphology-based supervised approach predicted OS with p-value=0.0028, HR=2.43 [1.10-5.38]. The self-supervised approach corroborated the findings with clusters enriched in necrosis, fibroblastic stroma, and osteoblastic morphology associating with better OS (lg2HR; -2.366; -1.164; -1.175; 95% CI=[-2.996; -0.514]). Viable/partially viable tumor and fat necrosis were associated with worse OS (lg2HR;1.287;0.822;0.828; 95% CI=[0.38-1.974]). Conclusions: Neural networks can be used to automatically estimate the necrosis to tumor ratio, a quantitative metric predictive of survival. Furthermore, we identified alternate histomorphological biomarkers specific to the necrotic and tumor regions themselves which can be used as predictors.