Are shrinking populations stifling urban resilience? Evidence from 111 resource-based cities in China

Improving urban economic resilience is crucial for achieving urban economic growth and sustainable development. However, population shrinkage is not conducive to improving economic resilience. Few studies have examined the impact of population shrinkage in resource-based cities (RBCs) on economic resilience. This study analyzes the effects of population shrinkage on the economic resilience of RBCs to provide insights for enhancing the ability of RBCs to effectively navigate various acute shocks and chronic pressures. We create an evaluation system to assess the economic resilience of RBCs, investigating the economic stability, diversity, innovation, and recovery aspects of 111 RBCs in China. Geo-tree, spatial lag, and mediating effects models are applied to examine the impact of population shrinkage on economic resilience and its spillover effects. The results show that cities with high levels of economic resilience are concentrated in the central and eastern regions of China. Population shrinkage in regression and growth cities has a significant negative effect on economic resilience. Additionally, population shrinkage in recession cities has a positive spillover effect on the economic resilience of surrounding regions. Lastly, the degree of informatization partially mediates the relationship between population shrinkage and economic resilience.