Projecting the excess mortality due to heatwave and its characteristics under climate change, population and adaptation scenarios

气候变化 背景(考古学) 人口 环境卫生 公共卫生 全球变暖 中国 社会经济地位 地理 环境科学 医学 人口学 生态学 护理部 考古 社会学 生物
作者
Jiangdong Liu,Hang Dong,Mengmeng Li,Ying Wu,Chunlin Zhang,Jinjian Chen,Yang Zhou,Guozhen Lin,De Li Liu,Jun Yang
出处
期刊:International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health [Elsevier BV]
卷期号:250: 114157-114157 被引量:18
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.ijheh.2023.114157
摘要

Heatwaves have significant adverse effects on human health. The frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase dramatically, in the context of global warming. However, there are few comprehensive assessments of the health impact of heatwaves considering different definitions, and their characteristics under climate change scenarios. We aimed to compare future excess mortality related to heatwaves among different definitions under climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in China and further explore the mortality burden associated with heatwave characteristics. Daily data during 2010–2019 were collected in Guangzhou, China. We adopted nine common heatwave definitions and applied quasi-Poisson models to estimate the effects of heatwaves and their characteristics' impact on mortality. We then projected the excess mortality associated with heatwaves and their characteristics concerning climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios. The relative risks of the nine common heatwave definitions ranged from 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.10) to 1.24 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.35). Heatwave-related excess mortality will consistently increase in the future decades considering multiple heatwave definitions, with more rapidly increasing rates under the Shared Socioeconomic Path5-8.5 and non-adaptability scenarios. Regarding heatwave characteristics, the intensity is the main factor involved in the threat of heatwaves. The increasing trend of characteristic-related mortality burden is similar to that of heatwaves, and the mortality burden caused by the duration of the heatwaves was the largest among all characteristics. This study provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of heatwaves and their characteristics on public health under various climate change scenarios, population changes, and adaptive assumptions. The results may provide important public health implications for policymakers in planning climate change adaptation and mitigation policies, and implementing specific plans.
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