Effects of landscape changes on water quality: A global meta-analysis

Landscape changes resulting from anthropogenic activities and climate changes severely impact surface water quality. A global perspective on understanding their relationship is a prerequisite for pursuing equity in water security and sustainable development. A sequent meta-analysis synthesizing 625 regional studies from 63 countries worldwide was conducted to analyze the impacts on water quality from changing landscape compositions in the catchment and explore the moderating factors and temporal evolution. Results exhibit that total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and chemical oxygen demand (COD) in water are mostly concerned and highly responsive to landscape changes. Expansion of urban lands fundamentally degraded worldwide water quality over the past 20 years, of which the arid areas tended to suffer more harsh deterioration. Increasing forest cover, particularly low-latitude forests, significantly decreased the risk of water pollution, especially biological and heavy metal contamination, suggesting the importance of forest restoration in global urbanization. The effect size of agricultural land changes on water quality was spatially scale-dependent, decreasing and then increasing with the buffer radius expanding. Wetland coverage positively correlated with organic matter in water typified by COD, and the correlation coefficient peaked in the boreal areas (r=0.82, p<0.01). Overall, the global impacts of landscape changes on water quality have been intensifying since the 1990s. Nevertheless, knowledge gaps still exist in developing areas, especially in Africa and South America, where the water quality is sensitive to landscape changes and is expected to experience dramatic shifts in foreseeable future development. Our study revealed the worldwide consistency and heterogeneity between regions, thus serving as a research roadmap to address the quality-induced global water scarcity under landscape changes and to direct the management of land and water.