Diffusion-Weighted Imaging as a Quantitative Imaging Biomarker for Predicting Proliferation Rate in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Developing a Radiomics Nomogram

Purpose This study aimed to explore the predictive performance of diffusion-weighted imaging with apparent diffusion coefficient map in predicting the proliferation rate of hepatocellular carcinoma and to develop a radiomics-based nomogram. Methods This was a single-center retrospective study. A total of 110 patients were enrolled. The sample included 38 patients with low Ki67 expression (Ki67 ≤10%) and 72 with high Ki67 expression (Ki67 >10%) as demonstrated by surgical pathology. Patients were randomly divided into either a training (n = 77) or validation (n = 33) cohort. Diffusion-weighted imaging with apparent diffusion coefficient maps was used to extract radiomic features and the signal intensity values of tumor (SI tumor ), normal liver (SI liver ), and background noise (SI background ) from all samples. Subsequently, the clinical model, radiomic model, and fusion model (with clinical data and radiomic signature) were developed and validated. Results The area under the curve (AUC) of the clinical model for predicting the Ki67 expression including serum α-fetoprotein level ( P = 0.010), age ( P = 0.015), and signal noise ratio ( P = 0.026) was 0.799 and 0.715 in training and validation cohorts, respectively. The AUC of the radiomic model constructed by 9 selected radiomic features was 0.833 and 0.772 in training and validation cohorts, respectively. The AUC of the fusion model containing serum α-fetoprotein level ( P = 0.011), age ( P = 0.019), and rad score ( P < 0.001) was 0.901 and 0.781 in training and validation cohorts, respectively. Conclusions Diffusion-weighted imaging as a quantitative imaging biomarker can predict Ki67 expression level in hepatocellular carcinoma across various models.