Artificial intelligence-enabled prediction of chemotherapy-induced cardiotoxicity from baseline electrocardiograms

Abstract Anthracyclines can cause cancer therapy-related cardiac dysfunction (CTRCD) that adversely affects prognosis. Despite guideline recommendations, only half of the patients undergo surveillance echocardiograms. An AI model detecting reduced left ventricular ejection fraction from 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECG) (AI-EF model) suggests ECG features reflect left ventricular pathophysiology. We hypothesized that AI could predict CTRCD from baseline ECG, leveraging the AI-EF model’s insights, and developed the AI-CTRCD model using transfer learning on the AI-EF model. In 1011 anthracycline-treated patients, 8.7% experienced CTRCD. High AI-CTRCD scores indicated elevated CTRCD risk (hazard ratio (HR), 2.66; 95% CI 1.73–4.10; log-rank p < 0.001). This remained consistent after adjusting for risk factors (adjusted HR, 2.57; 95% CI 1.62–4.10; p < 0.001). AI-CTRCD score enhanced prediction beyond known factors (time-dependent AUC for 2 years: 0.78 with AI-CTRCD score vs. 0.74 without; p = 0.005). In conclusion, the AI model robustly stratified CTRCD risk from baseline ECG.