Effects of land use and land cover change under shared socioeconomic pathways on future climate in the Yellow River basin, China

The Yellow River basin of China has experienced significant land use and land cover change (LUCC) due to excessive exploitation of nature resources, ecological degradation, and rapid urbanization, which plays an important role in the regional climate. It is crucial to explore the climate patterns of the basin under different future development scenarios to mitigate climate issues and achieve "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals". Here we utilized land use and land cover (LULC) data and projections of future climate under two shared socioeconomic path – representative concentration path (SSP245 and SSP585) scenarios. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we simulated four future spatial variation patterns of temperature and precipitation in the basin. Results indicated that under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, the temperature is projected to increase by 0.18 °C and 0.46 °C, respectively, while precipitation is expected to rise by 32.21 mm and 134.24 mm, respectively. The impact of LUCC was found to be relatively minor and mainly concentrated in the middle reaches of the basin. It resulted in a slight increase in temperature in both scenarios and an increase in precipitation in SSP245, but a decrease in precipitation in SSP585. Changes in farmland and urban area exhibited a certain warming effect in both scenarios, with urban areas having a greater influence, leading to a temperature increase by 0.25 °C and 0.28 °C, respectively. Forest, grassland, and bare areas had a lesser impact on temperature and showed different trends under two scenarios. Regarding precipitation, forests and urban areas had a greater influence in both SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. This study identified the significant role of LUCC under different development scenarios in shaping future temperature and precipitation changes, providing valuable insights for effectively addressing climate issues in the Yellow River basin. It also highlights the need for clear policy recommendations and identifies institutions or agencies responsible for implementing such recommendations.