How does information and communications technology agglomeration affect the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions? Evidence from 257 cities in China

Decoupling economic growth and carbon emissions is essential for sustainable growth. However, the impact of ICT agglomeration, especially its long-term impact on decoupling, has received little attention. Drawing on the Tapio decoupling model and dynamic decoupling path theory, this study examines the short-term and long-term effects of ICT agglomeration on decoupling by using a panel data set for 257 cities in China from 2003 to 2017. The results show that most cities are in a state of weak decoupling (253/257) and on an intensive dynamic decoupling path (192/257). Our empirical analyses confirm that ICT agglomeration negatively impacts the short-term decoupling trend but positively impacts the long-term decoupling path. The mediating mechanism analysis indicates that ICT agglomeration affects decoupling by driving ICT infrastructure investment, promoting green technology innovation, and stimulating consumption of ICT equipment. Green technology innovation significantly drives decoupling in both the short-term and long-term impacts.