竞争
地缘政治学
兼并
北极的
北极
政治学
武装冲突
政治经济学
冲突分析
冲突解决
经济
发展经济学
法学
社会学
海洋学
地质学
经济
政治
宏观经济学
作者
Tomáš Vlček,Martin Chovančík,Kateřina Uhlířová,Martin Jirušek
标识
DOI:10.1080/09668136.2023.2292471
摘要
Following the 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia, tensions have heightened in the international relations and security environment, including the Arctic region. We are witnessing renewed geopolitical rivalry and military tensions between the Arctic states. In this article, a steps-to-war model of conflict escalation is used to calculate whether the conflict potential in the Arctic is rising. While our results confirm an increase in confrontational behaviour according to militarisation and coalition-building markers, the rivalry marker shows a rise in cooperative behaviour. Hence, in our model, the preconditions signalling an increased likelihood of international armed conflict are not fulfilled.
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