Artificial intelligence image-based prediction models in IBD exhibit high risk of bias: A systematic review

There has been an increase in the development of both machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) prediction models in Inflammatory Bowel Disease. We aim in this systematic review to assess the methodological quality and risk of bias of ML and DL IBD image-based prediction studies. We searched three databases, PubMed, Scopus and Embase, to identify ML and DL diagnostic or prognostic predictive models using imaging data in IBD, to Dec 31, 2022. We restricted our search to include studies that primarily used conventional imaging data, were undertaken in human participants, and published in English. Two reviewers independently reviewed the abstracts. The methodological quality of the studies was determined, and risk of bias evaluated using the prediction risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Forty studies were included, thirty-nine developed diagnostic models. Seven studies utilized ML approaches, six were retrospective and none used multicenter data for model development. Thirty-three studies utilized DL approaches, ten were prospective, and twelve multicenter studies. Overall, all studies demonstrated high risk of bias. ML studies were evaluated in 4 domains all rated as high risk of bias: participants (6/7), predictors (1/7), outcome (3/7), and analysis (7/7), and DL studies evaluated in 3 domains: participants (24/33), outcome (10/33), and analysis (18/33). The majority of image-based studies used colonoscopy images. The risk of bias was high in AI IBD image-based prediction models, owing to insufficient sample size, unreported missingness and lack of an external validation cohort. Models with a high risk of bias are unlikely to be generalizable and suitable for clinical implementation.