Does partition matter? A new approach to modeling land use change

Cellular automata (CA) is a classical method for studying land use change. However, homogeneous transformation rules have commonly been used to conduct simulations in the past, and these rules seldom consider the spatial heterogeneity of geographic elements. Therefore, in this study, we incorporated spatial-temporal heterogeneity transformation rules into the CA framework based on spatial data mining. A model that couples self-organizing maps (SOM), hierarchical clustering (HC), and patch generation land use simulation (PLUS) was proposed; it is called the SOM-HC-PLUS model. This model considers the difference in local-area driving factors, and therefor it not only determines the optimal partition scheme automatically, but it also measures the contribution of partition driving factors. The Jinpu New Area in Dalian, China, was used to test the validity of the model by comparing the traditional PLUS model and the administrative division (AD)-PLUS model based on AD partition. The results showed that the partition scheme of the SOM-HC-PLUS model was reasonable and credible. Further, compared with other models, this model showed higher simulation accuracy and a more realistic land use distribution pattern. The driving factors showed significant differences in the overall and regional intensity. Moreover, the importance of natural environmental conditions, represented by elevation factors, in the expansion of artificial surfaces increased significantly. By 2030, artificial surfaces were projected to increase significantly through the conversion of cultivated lands. The sustainable development scenario showed a more compact patch layout and exhibited better protection of grasslands and forests than the historical development scenario. In summary, this study proposed a mixture CA model based on the idea of geographic partition, one that proved the reliability of the SOM-HC-PLUS model to conduct spatial-temporal heterogeneity studies on land use partition. It provides the possibility to explore patterns of regional land use changes over multiple periods, and can assist in urban planning and management and promoting sustainable development.