[Meta-analysis of the Italian studies on short-term effects of air pollution--MISA 1996-2002].

地理 空气污染 人口普查 环境卫生 代表性启发 空气质量指数 人口 环境科学 医学 环境保护 统计 气象学 数学 有机化学 化学
作者
Annibale Biggeri,Pierantonio Bellini,Benedetto Terracini
出处
期刊:PubMed 卷期号:28 (4-5 Suppl): 4-100 被引量:104
链接
标识
摘要

the Italian Meta-analysis of short-term effects of air pollution for the period 1996-2002 (MISA-2) is a planned study on 15 Italian cities, among the larger country towns summing up 9 millions and one hundred thousand inhabitants at 2001 census. HEALTH OUTCOMES DATA: mortality for all natural causes (362254 deaths), for respiratory causes (22317) and cardiovascular causes (146830), and hospital admissions for acute conditions, respiratory (278028 admissions), cardiac (455540) and cerebrovascular (60960), have been considered. Mortality data came from Regional or Local Health Unit Registries, while hospital admissions data have been selected from Regional or Hospital Archives (exclusion percentages range for all admissions between 45% and 82%). For each participating city daily series averaged about 4.3 years, with a minimum of three consecutive years. AIR POLLUTANTS DATA: daily pollutants concentration series (SO2, NO2, CO, PM10, O3) came from air quality monitoring networks of Regional Environmental Protection Agencies, of Environmental Offices of Provinces or Municipalities. Monitors' selection has been done by a working group composed by representatives of monitoring network Agencies. The selection criteria are the representativeness of general population exposure for each specific pollutant, avoiding as possible monitors close to high traffic roads; and the number, quality and location of monitors, selecting around 3-4 monitors with continuous data flow in the period (at least 75% of valid hourly data). The final series has been created averaging over monitors and imputing missing values under proportionality assumptions. Median of Pearson correlation coefficients between pairs of monitors of the each city was 0.62, interquartile range 0.42-0.77.A generalized linear model on daily counts of health events has been fitted for each city. Linear pollutant effect has been specified and bi-pollutant models have been fitted for PM10+NO2 and PMO+O3. Temperature has been modelled parametrically using a change point at 21 degrees C and lagged effects. Humidity, day of the week, national holidays and influenza epidemics (using data from the National Surveillance Programs from 1999) are the other considered confounders. An age-specific natural cubic spline on season has been specified with 5 degree of freedom (on average) per year for mortality and 7 degree of freedom per year for hospital admission data. The base model is age-stratified (0-64, 65-74, 75+ years). Gender, age, season specific models have been fitted, too. Five sensitivity analyses have been done, varying the degree of freedom for the seasonality spline and specifying non parametric functions on temperature. Constrained distributed lag models have been fitted on mortality data to study potential harvesting effects. City-specific results have been meta-analyzed by random effects hierarchical Bayesian model. Four different models have been fitted in the sensitivity analyses, assuming different priors on heterogeneity variance and outlier-resistant prior on city-specific effects. Bayesian meta-regressions have been fitted on base model, bi-pollutant and season-specific city-specific results. Attributable deaths have been estimated by Monte Carlo methods using effect, pollutant, baseline rate distributions. Fourteen different scenarios have been considered for PM10 and ten for NO2 and CO, using meta-analitic and posterior city-specific effect estimatesPollutants effects are reported as percent increase on mortality or hospital admissions for an increase of 10 microg/m3 of SO2, NO2 and PM10, and 1 mg/m3 of CO. We found an increase on mortality for all natural causes associated to increase of air pollutants concentration (for NO2 0.6% 95%CrI 0.3,0.9; CO 1.2% 0.6,1.7; PM10 0.31% -0.2,0.7). Similar findings were found for cardiorespiratory mortality and hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiac diseases. We found no difference by gender. There was a weak evidence of greater effect size in extreme age groups (0-24 months and over 85 years where we found a percent increase in mortality for all natural causes for PM10 of 0.39% CrI95% 0.0,0.8). There was a strong evidence for each pollutant of greater effects in the warm season (1st May-30th September) on mortality and hospital admissions (we found a percent increase in mortality for all natural causes for PM10 in the warm season of 1.95% CrI95% 0.6,3.3). The associations between pollutants concentration and health events were present at different time lags, depending on outcome and exposure. For mortality, the excess risk peaked within few days from the exposure increase (two days for PM10, up to four days for NO2 and CO). Mortality displacement was minor and ended within two weeks. Cumulative effects at fifteen days showed higher risks for respiratory diseases (PM10 1.65% CI95% 0.3,3.0). The results of meta-regressions showed associations between PM10 effects on mortality and hospital admissions, and mortality for all causes (SMR) and PM10/NO2 ratio. The effect modification of temperature was very consistent, and also using bi-pollutant models. Such effect modification was greater during the cold season. We found and overall impact on mortality for all natural causes in the period 1996-2002 between 1.4% and 4.1% of all deaths for gaseous pollutants (NO2 and CO). The estimates were more imprecise for PM10, due to the variability among cities of the effect estimates (0.1%; 3.3%). The limits stated in the European Union directives for 2010 would have been saved about 900 deaths (1.4%) for PM10 or 1400 deaths for NO2 (1.7%) among all the MISA cities, applying posterior city-specific effect estimates.

科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI
更新
PDF的下载单位、IP信息已删除 (2025-6-4)

科研通是完全免费的文献互助平台,具备全网最快的应助速度,最高的求助完成率。 对每一个文献求助,科研通都将尽心尽力,给求助人一个满意的交代。
实时播报
zz完成签到,获得积分10
2秒前
2秒前
2秒前
3秒前
3秒前
4秒前
4秒前
6秒前
药小博发布了新的文献求助10
7秒前
7秒前
8秒前
2020完成签到,获得积分10
9秒前
Jolleyhaha发布了新的文献求助10
10秒前
朴素寻冬完成签到,获得积分10
10秒前
猫捡球完成签到,获得积分10
11秒前
小马甲应助杭谷波采纳,获得10
11秒前
Kiligso完成签到,获得积分10
11秒前
12秒前
111完成签到 ,获得积分10
13秒前
luffy完成签到 ,获得积分10
13秒前
柠檬汽水发布了新的文献求助10
15秒前
zhang完成签到,获得积分10
15秒前
Han发布了新的文献求助10
16秒前
ibigbird完成签到,获得积分10
17秒前
打打应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
18秒前
十二应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
19秒前
隐形曼青应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
19秒前
慕青应助Hazel采纳,获得10
19秒前
kk应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
19秒前
19秒前
十二应助科研通管家采纳,获得10
19秒前
19秒前
19秒前
kk应助科研通管家采纳,获得30
19秒前
21秒前
22秒前
李健应助北譩采纳,获得10
23秒前
量子星尘发布了新的文献求助10
24秒前
25秒前
25秒前
高分求助中
The Mother of All Tableaux Order, Equivalence, and Geometry in the Large-scale Structure of Optimality Theory 2400
Ophthalmic Equipment Market by Devices(surgical: vitreorentinal,IOLs,OVDs,contact lens,RGP lens,backflush,diagnostic&monitoring:OCT,actorefractor,keratometer,tonometer,ophthalmoscpe,OVD), End User,Buying Criteria-Global Forecast to2029 2000
A new approach to the extrapolation of accelerated life test data 1000
Cognitive Neuroscience: The Biology of the Mind 1000
Cognitive Neuroscience: The Biology of the Mind (Sixth Edition) 1000
Optimal Transport: A Comprehensive Introduction to Modeling, Analysis, Simulation, Applications 800
Official Methods of Analysis of AOAC INTERNATIONAL 600
热门求助领域 (近24小时)
化学 材料科学 医学 生物 工程类 有机化学 生物化学 物理 内科学 纳米技术 计算机科学 化学工程 复合材料 遗传学 基因 物理化学 催化作用 冶金 细胞生物学 免疫学
热门帖子
关注 科研通微信公众号,转发送积分 3959371
求助须知:如何正确求助?哪些是违规求助? 3505602
关于积分的说明 11124845
捐赠科研通 3237384
什么是DOI,文献DOI怎么找? 1789116
邀请新用户注册赠送积分活动 871577
科研通“疑难数据库(出版商)”最低求助积分说明 802844