Current and future burden of breast cancer: Global statistics for 2020 and 2040

乳腺癌 医学 人口学 癌症 入射(几何) 人口 死亡率 地理 环境卫生 内科学 物理 社会学 光学
作者
Melina Arnold,Eileen Morgan,Harriet Rumgay,Allini Mafra da Costa,Deependra Singh,Mathieu Laversanne,Jérôme Vignat,Julie R. Gralow,Fátima Cardoso,Sabine Siesling,Isabelle Soerjomataram
出处
期刊:The Breast [Elsevier]
卷期号:66: 15-23 被引量:1236
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.breast.2022.08.010
摘要

Abstract

Background

Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide, and its burden has been rising over the past decades. In this article, we examine and describe the global burden of breast cancer in 2020 and predictions for the year 2040.

Methods

Estimates of new female breast cancer cases and deaths in 2020 were abstracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 females by country, world region, and level of human development. Predicted cases and deaths were computed based on global demographic projections for the year 2040.

Results

Over 2.3 million new cases and 685,000 deaths from breast cancer occurred in 2020. Large geographic variation across countries and world regions exists, with incidence rates ranging from <40 per 100,000 females in some Asian and African countries, to over 80 per 100,000 in Australia/New Zealand, Northern America, and parts of Europe. Smaller geographical variation was observed for mortality; however, transitioning countries continue to carry a disproportionate share of breast cancer deaths relative to transitioned countries. By 2040, the burden from breast cancer is predicted to increase to over 3 million new cases and 1 million deaths every year because of population growth and ageing alone.

Conclusion

Breast cancer is the most common cancer worldwide and continues to have a large impact on the global number of cancer deaths. Global efforts are needed to counteract its growing burden, especially in transitioning countries where incidence is rising rapidly, and mortality rates remain high.
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