A research on promoting chemical fertiliser reduction for sustainable agriculture purposes: Evolutionary game analyses involving ‘government, farmers, and consumers’

The excessive use of chemical fertilisers seriously worsened the agro-ecological environment in China. Despite the Chinese government enacted a series of policies to reduce chemical fertilisers use, the situation has not been significantly improved. Existing researches about the fertiliser reduction mainly from a single subject, but farmers' chemical fertiliser use behaviour is jointly affected by multiple subjects, including farmers, market and government. To reduce chemical fertilisers use and realize the green and sustainable development of agriculture, this paper builds a tripartite evolution model of the government, farmers and consumers based on evolutionary game theory, and simulates and discusses the behaviour of the government, farmers and consumers in the process of fertiliser reduction. Results indicate: (1) Under different partnership modes, the tripartite of government, farmers and consumers can evolve to reach a stable state. (2) The government's ecological compensation for farmers’ fertiliser reduction and subsidies for consumers' green consumption are inadequate. Raising ecological compensation to 200%–267% of the original level could incentive farmers chemical fertiliser reduction. Raising the price subsidies for consumers’ green consumption to approximately 136% of the original level could help motivate farmers to make a green production transformation through the market mechanism. (3) Farmers' risk expectations of fertiliser reduction is negatively correlated with farmers' chemical fertilisers reduction willingness and consumers' green consumption willingness. Consumers’ trust is positively correlated with farmers' chemical fertilisers reduction willingness and consumers' green consumption willingness. This study provides theoretical guidance for the government, farmers and consumers in making scientific decisions, serving as a policy reference for the government to promote chemical fertiliser reduction.