Impact of global value chain embedding on decoupling between China's CO2 emissions and economic growth: Based on Tapio decoupling and structural decomposition

With the increasing fragmentation of global production, China's participation in cross-border production sharing activities has had a considerable impact on the nation's economy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study applied the Tapio model to quantitatively evaluate the decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth in China, dividing the decoupling index based on global value chains (GVCs) and domestic production within the IO framework, and introducing structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to analyze the GVC-related factors to the decoupling. The relevant research results are fourfold. (1) From 2000 to 2018, China achieved weak decoupling between emissions and economic growth. Domestic and GVC effects each had a negative impact on the decoupling; however, after 2008, the GVC effect had a promotional effect and the negative domestic effect declined. (2) Emission intensity was the primary factor promoting decoupling through domestic and GVC effects, while the scale of final demand was the main hindrance. And the negative effects of GVC-related factors declined following the economic crisis. (3) The regional and sectoral structures of GVC production (58.44 % and 56.08 %) had promotional roles in the changes in GVC effects, while GVC production linkages (-20.19 %) had hindering effects. Various factors contributed to the hindering effect from the 2008 to 2011 index, whereas from the 2011 to 2018 index, all factors contributed to the promotional effect. (4) From 2000 to 2018, the average annual global value chain effect promoted the low-carbon development of China's labor-intensive and knowledge-based manufacturing. In order for GVCs to play a positive role in decoupling, China should promote trade facilitation through international platforms, support the advancement of production technology, reasonably guide China's industries to participate in the regional and industrial links of GVCs, and develop strategic emerging industries.