Frailty Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in the Elderly

Objective To investigate whether frailty is associated with an increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a prospective cohort of community-dwelling older people. Design Longitudinal study, mean follow-up of 4.4 years. Setting Progetto Veneto Anziani (Pro.V.A.) study that involved older community-dwellers. Participants 1754 men and women older than 65 years without T2DM at baseline. Measurements Frailty status was defined according to Fried criteria and categorized as frailty (≥3 criteria), prefrailty (1-2 criteria), or no frailty (0 criterion). Incident T2DM was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/L, or glycosylated hemoglobin ≥6.5%, the use of glucose-lowering drugs, or FPG ≥11.1 mmol/L on a 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test during the follow-up. All T2DM diagnoses were confirmed by endocrinologists. Results At baseline, frail participants (n = 174) were significantly (a) more obese and had higher waist circumference, (b) experienced a higher rate of cardiovascular disease (including hypertension), and (c) presented with higher, but not pathologic, values of glycosylated hemoglobin and FPG than prefrail (n = 830) and nonfrail participants (n = 750). Over a 4.4-year follow-up, 265 individuals developed T2DM. In a logistic regression analysis, adjusted for potential baseline confounders, frailty [odds ratio (OR) = 1.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.31-2.13, P < .0001] and prefrailty (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.27-2.00, P < .0001) were associated with a significantly higher incidence of T2DM than in nonfrail individuals. Conclusion Among community-dwelling older people, frailty and prefrailty were significant and independent predictors of T2DM, which is a major and potentially preventable risk factor for multiple comorbidities.