Long-Term Axial Length Shortening in Myopic Orthokeratology: Incident Probability, Time Course, and Influencing Factors

Purpose: Long-term axial length (AL) shortening in myopia is uncommon but noteworthy. Current understanding on the condition is limited due to difficulties in case collection. The study reported percentage, probability, and time course of long-term AL shortening in myopic orthokeratology based on a large database. Methods: This study reviewed 142,091 medical records from 29,825 subjects in a single-hospital orthokeratology database that were collected over 10 years. Long-term AL shortening was defined as a change in AL of −0.1 mm or less at any follow-up beyond 1 year. Incident probability was calculated based on multivariate logistic regression. Time course was estimated using mixed-effect regression model. Results: A total of 10,093 subjects (mean initial age, 11.70 ± 2.52 years; 58.8% female) with 80,778 visits were included. The number of subjects experienced long-term AL shortening was 1,662 (16.47%; 95% confidence interval, 15.75%–17.21%). Initial age showed significant impact on the incident occurrence (OR, 1.37; 95% confidence interval, 1.34–1.40; P < 0.001). The estimated probability of AL shortening was approximately 2% for subjects with initial age of 6 years and 50% for those aged 18. Among the 1662 AL shortening cases, the median magnitude of the maximum AL reduction was 0.19 mm. The shortening process mostly occurred within the initial 2 years. Subject characteristics had limited associations with the shortening rate. Conclusions: Long-term AL shortening is possible in subjects receiving myopic orthokeratology. Although age notably affect the incident probability, the time course seems to not vary significantly.