The relationship between agricultural and animal husbandry economic development and carbon emissions in Henan Province, the analysis of factors affecting carbon emissions, and carbon emissions prediction

This study aims to investigate the relationship between agricultural and animal husbandry economic development and carbon emissions and the influencing factors on carbon emissions. Here, we combine the Tapio decoupling model with the STIRPAT model by using the panel data of Henan province from 2000 to 2020 for it. Our results reveal that (i) the main relationship between agricultural and animal husbandry economic development and carbon emissions is strong decoupling and weak decoupling; (ii) the intensity of carbon emissions and labor effects can optimize their relationship; (iii) the urbanization rate and per capita consumption expenditure in rural areas have a negative impact on carbon emissions, while the carbon emission intensity and total power of agricultural machinery are opposite. Therefore, Henan province needs to optimize its industrial structure, improve the economic level of rural areas, and reduce the use of fertilizers.