An analysis of multiple ecosystem services in a large-scale urbanized area of northern China based on the food-energy-water integrative framework

A better understanding of urban sustainability would be accomplished if the food-energy-water (FEW) relationship was linked with the system of multiple ecosystem services (ESs); however, the two systems have thus far been studied intensively but separately. Here, an analytical framework is developed from the perspective of the FEW interactions to investigate the dynamics of multiple ESs and its stressors. The main steps include 1) selecting ES and FEW indicators according to the socionatural features; 2) studying the spatiotemporal dynamics by a synergy and trade-off analysis and ES bundles; and 3) applying the random forest algorithm to identify the key stressors. The framework is applied to the state-level Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Yulin urban agglomeration, which consists of 4 cities and 38 counties in northern China, from 1991 to 2015 (5 years as a period). The results indicate that ESs with the food supply have increased while certain ESs have declined in some counties (e.g., Tumd Zuoqi, and Junggar). The trade-offs have increased from 5 to 11 pairs since 1996, and most of them were related to provisioning ESs. The bundles for water supply and conservation have shrunk, whereas the bundles for food supply have expanded. Agriculture and animal husbandry, which account for 71.58–83% of the total water consumption, have always been the most important stressors. Coal mining and thermal power generation were the important stressors from 2011 to 2015. The findings indicate that ESs should be considered constraining variables in FEW-related policy formulations.