The prediction of liver decompensation using hepatic collagen deposition assessed by computer-assisted image analysis with Masson’s trichrome stain

The current pathologic system classifies structural deformation caused by hepatic fibrosis semi-quantitatively, which may lead to a disagreement among pathologists. We measured hepatic fibrosis quantitatively using collagen proportionate area (CPA) in compensated cirrhotic patients and assessed its impact on predicting the development of liver decompensation.From January 2010 to June 2018, we assessed 101 patients who went through liver biopsy and received diagnosis as compensated cirrhosis with digital image analysis of CPA. Clinical and laboratory data were collected at the baseline and at the time of the last follow-up or progression to liver decompensation (LD).The mean age was 50.8 ± 10.5 years, and the most common etiology of liver disease was chronic hepatitis B (48.5%), followed by alcoholic hepatitis (18.8%). The mean CPA was 16.91 ± 9.60%. The mean CPA values were different in patients with and without LD development (21.8 ± 11.1 vs. 15.2 ± 8.5). During the median follow-up of 60.0 months, 26 out of 101 patients experienced LD. Older age (hazard ratio [HR],1.069; p = 0.015), prolonged international normalized ratio (HR, 6.449; p = 0.019) and higher CPA (HR, 1.049; p = 0.040) were independent predictors of liver decompensation on multivariate cox-regression analysis. When patients were divided according to the optimal CPA threshold (26.8%), higher CPA predicted LD better than lower CPA. (Log-rank test: p < 0.001).CPA could be a useful quantitative prognostic value for patients with compensated cirrhosis.